MLB ERA Player Prop Future Bets: Four Pitchers Worth Betting the Under

Let’s check out some MLB ERA props today as we continue our tour through the MLB props markets. 

I guess I am ever the optimist as I only have ERA unders here. But I feel really good about all four of them as I believe we have three guys who’s concerns are more about durability than talent. And a fourth one where projection systems just have not adjusted fast enough. 

Anyways, here are MLB Picks.

Brandon Woodruff Under 3.59 ERA

The Brewers ace has had major issues staying on the field in recent years. He missed 2024 completely and his just 131.2 IP total since 2022. He looks iffy to be ready for Opening Day this year as well. That all makes him challenging to roster in fantasy baseball, but the one likelihood is that he pitches well when he can make it to the mound. He has a career 3.10 ERA, fully backed by pretty much every ERA estimator as he has a 3.17 xERA, 3.36 SIERA and 3.19 FIP. 

He only tossed 64.2 MLB innings last year, but was fantastic with a 3.20 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 32.3% K% and just a 5.4% BB%.

Drew Rasmussen Under 3.73 ERA

This is similar to Woodruff in that its a guy that’s been excellent whenever he pitches, he just has issues staying healthy. Rasmussen’s career ERA is a sparkling 2.89, though he’s not quite that good. He has a 3.71 SIERA, but also a 3.36 xERA and 3.28 FIP. He’s a bit riskier than Woodruff as he’s not a big K guy (23.3% career). Rather he keeps in on the ground with a 9.3 LA and avoids hard contact with just a 5.7% career Barrel%. 

Plus he gets to move back into the Trop this year after pitching in the Tampa humidity last year. Again we’re not concerned about innings for this prop, but fwiw he pitched a career high 150 IP in 2025.

Nick Lodolo Under 4.09 ERA

I get why this number is on the high end. Lodolo plays in what’s generally an extreme hitters park, and he has just a 4.06 career ERA. 

But the big lefty was absolutely excellent in 2025 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.08 and…notice a them here…talent was never really the question here, it was his ability to take his starts. He has an excellent career 19.5% K%-BB%, 3.54 SIERA and 3.74 xERA. I think Lodolo is a real budding ace and I love his chances for a big season.

Trevor Rogers Under 4.14 ERA

Rogers career has been a roller coaster that makes Space Mountain look tame. He looked like a budding ace in Miami in 2021 with a 2.64 ERA in 133 IP, but then followed that up with injuries and a 5.47 ERA, followed by more injuries and bad pitching, a trade to Baltimore in 2024 and a minor league demotion. 

Then out of nowhere he returned to MLB last season and gave the Orioles 109.2 IP of a 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Of course that came with good fortune in the form of a .226 BABIP and 84% LOB%. But he was still very good, with a 17.5% K-BB%, 3.40 xERA and 3.75 SIERA. I think he pitches to his mid 3’s ERA estimators and this is a great play.